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Welcome to the Table of contents for Carbon Risk.

If you’re not sure how to navigate this publication, you’re now in the right place. From A (Asia-Pacific) to V (verified carbon market) this is your jumping-off point. I’ll update this post every month so you can always stay on top of things.

Remember that even though you may only receive my posts in your inbox, there’s a massive back-catalogue waiting for your perusal, most of which is evergreen content - 329 articles as of end October 2024.

If you’d like to know more about a particular area of climate policy, want me to write more about a particular carbon market, or any other suggestions for content then please leave a message in the comments, respond to this email, or send me a DM via Substack or LinkedIn.

Asia-Pacific

• China's carbon credit market takes off

• India's catch-22: How to balance adapting to extreme temperatures, slowing the growth in emissions, while also alleviating poverty

• A battle for global carbon pricing supremacy is brewing: Why you need to pay more attention to China's carbon market

• Japan's 'Green Transformation' receives a welcome shot of credibility

• Inflexion point: The Indian economy is pivotal to the future direction of global carbon emissions

• Everything you need to know about the Korean Emissions Trading Scheme (KETS)

• Everything you need to know about China's national carbon market

• Why Asia is pivotal to future carbon market growth

Australia / New Zealand

• New Zealand's carbon market is close to resolving its commitment issues

• The other side of the table

• Everything you need to know about Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)

• Australia's carbon market reforms get the green light

• Australia's carbon price poised for bull market: Reforms look set to restore trust, significantly increasing ambition

• Pulling the rug out from 'Down Under': What can investors learn from the collapse of the Australian carbon market?

• New Zealand's carbon market: The carbon trade you've probably never heard of

Compliance carbon markets - general

• Pricing carbon at its social cost: Carbon markets will increasingly be influenced by the social cost of carbon

• It's the carbon price, stupid!

• Pegger thy neighbour: Why smaller carbon markets link up with larger cap-and-trade schemes

• A carbon floor price is a bad idea: Meddling in markets built on trust is rarely successful

• Second-best climate policy: When political economy trumps economic efficiency

• Carbon market convergence does not mean a single global carbon price

• Carbon markets are going global

• BP's emissions trading scheme

• The arc of carbon’s curve: What does the carbon futures curve tell us and why is it important?

• Whack-A-Mole: How patchy global carbon markets channel fossil fuel finance

• "Don't touch my carbon revenue!" Focus on incentives to anticipate the next move in the EU carbon market

• Does a stable carbon market equilibrium exist?

• Hedging carbon risk

• The path to a global carbon price: Why carbon markets will converge and become increasingly correlated

• The great sulphur dioxide allowance bull market: What lessons can we learn from the first cap-and-trade system?

• Carbon is an emerging asset class, but what is it?

• How to think about political risk in carbon markets

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR)

• The carbon moonshot: Microsoft dominates the market for carbon removal

• Why CDR regulation could deter climate mitigation: The risk of 'moral hazard' tends to increase when governments intervene

• Backing BECCS: Demand for sustainable bioenergy with CCS set to intensify

• Nature's 'black gold' rush

• How modularity will supercharge growth in Direct Air Capture (DAC)

• Everything you need to know about enhanced weathering

• Scrubbing the skies: Direct Air Capture (DAC) offers a scalable route to net zero

• BECCS - the carbon removal chimera

• Char grilled: Why biochar is the most promising carbon removal technology

• Carbon farming puts a value on dirt: Soil carbon sequestration is the next frontier of the carbon market

• Climate engineering: The case for technology-based carbon removal

• The planet's carbon removal scarcity problem

• Technology-based carbon removal credits crucial if net-zero targets are to be met

CO2 capture, storage, transportation & end markets

• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is misunderstood

• Following in LNG's wake: First shipment of liquefied CO2 could be a prelude to a global marketplace

• Not in my backyard

• Pipe dreams

• The emergence of the carbon economy: Why construction materials are likely to dominate future CO2 demand

• Why Europe's heavy industry needs carbon capture and storage

• The carbon capture superpower: The United States will dominate global CCUS capacity

• Mind the decarbonisation gap: Storage capacity needs to scale fast if carbon capture is to reach its potential

• Everything carbon investors really need to know about carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS)

Concepts

• The Time Value of Carbon

• The carbon footprint fallacy: Why green investors need to get their hands dirty

• Carbon intensity: The key to an economically sustainable green transition

• Energy efficiency is undervalued and misunderstood

• Harnessing the invisible fuel

• Climate change - A tragedy in three parts

• Prosperity bends the curve

• The 'sailing ship' effect and the energy transition

• Carbonomics returns: The past, present and future cost of decarbonisation

• Everything you need to know about the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)

• Money to burn: How investors should think about the 'invisible fuel'

• Carbonomics 2023: Chinese EV battery deflation offsets offshore wind cost inflation

Climate policy

• A new political trilemma

• Britain makes coal history: Unique approach to carbon pricing instrumental to securing coal's fate

• Bringing home the bacon, sustainably: Denmark's carbon tax on agriculture allays fears of a European green backlash

• Europe's green backlash was priced in a long time ago

• The knock-on effect: The curious case of California's LCFS program

• Through the looking glass: Country level emissions data are (probably) not what they seem

• Climate policy uncertainty is on the rise

• The net zero fiscal trilemma

• The Green Swan: Conventional approaches to pricing carbon fail to capture risk of climate catastrophe

• 'Greenflationary' expectations revisited

• Carbon market vigilantes: The case for carbon-linked bonds

• Thermal coal's Coasian bargain: Paying coal plants to retire early is a viable route to net zero

• Resolving The Green Paradox

• Fuelling controversy: Fossil fuel subsidies act like a negative carbon price

• Everything you need to know about Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS)

• Zero carbon supremacy: Why governments are looking to secure their green industrial sovereignty

• Keeping their powder dry: Investors shy away from powering the emerging market energy transition

• Commitment issues

• A climate-driven "Minsky Moment": Revisiting the impact of a sudden repricing of carbon prices

• 'Greenflationary' expectations

• What happens if policymakers are forced to "stamp on the brakes" and force carbon prices higher?

• 'Greenflation' fears are a twin threat to the EUs monetary and climate credibility

• The impossible trinity at the heart of net zero

Canada

• Why Canada should reform its carbon tax

• Canada shows how NOT to use Carbon Contracts for Difference

• Canada's oil and gas cap-and-trade scheme does not go far enough

• Europe must learn from Canada's 'price on pollution' debacle

Commodities

• Deciphering nickels green premium

• Big Oil's bigger brothers: The battle to supply the "last barrel" in a carbon constrained future

• Commodity markets begin to price carbon risk

• Aluminium's climate paradox

• 'Carbon neutral' LNG 2.0

• 'Green' lithium

• Decarbonising the oil sands

• Carbon risk dulls allure of gold miners

• Why metal mining investors should support a global carbon price

• Carbon neutral LNG faces its toughest test yet

Europe’s emission trading scheme (ETS)

• Resolving the emerging endgame: Charting a path towards net-negative emissions with carbon removal

• Good green derivatives: A peek beneath the hood of the EU carbon market

• The emerging endgame

• Beware false prophets: The EUA forward curve is not a forecast of future carbon prices

• Germany's manufacturing malaise set to curb demand for EUAs

• Know your onions: Concern over the role of speculators in Europe's energy markets is overplayed

• A bear market rally, or the start of a new bull run?

• Over-hedged: One of Europe's most active players in the carbon market has gone conservative

• Short covering brings carbon market bulls out of hiding

• Deflationary expectations

• To catch a falling knife

• Smoke signals: Why Europe's policymakers should take heed to its carbon market

• Boiling over

• Breaking the bottleneck

• Testing long term support: The EU carbon price needs a cold winter and renewed political support to stop prices falling below a critical level

• Tipping point

• Playing with fire

• Collateral damage revisited

• No room for complacency: Gas supply worries jolt Europe's energy markets

• Commitment anxiety: EUA investment fund positioning rebounds from record net short

• Reflexivity and the EU ETS 'Endgame'

• Investment funds ditch carbon after failure to decisively breach €100

• Squaring up

• Crash course

• The only number that matters

• Out of ammunition: What can the EU do to stop carbon prices surging over €100

• Power down: Why the outlook for European electricity consumption will be crucial in determining carbon prices in 2023

• On a knife edge

• Europe's carbon footprint defies expectations

• Witching hour returns: What chance a repeat of the late 2021 EUA price surge

• Still betting on black? A deep dive into EUA futures and options activity, physical allowance demand and real time emissions data

• Seasonal shifts in the EU carbon market? Don't bet on it

• Return to the 70's: What's behind the surge in EU carbon prices?

• What RWE's 2030 coal burn phase out means for carbon prices

• EU member states ditch MSR sale proposal

• The big short: Record net short position underlines the extreme negative sentiment towards carbon

• Is the MSR sale really a 'win-win'? Calls grow for sale of emission allowances to fund Europe's energy transition

• The zero lower bound: What happens when EU ETS emissions approach zero?

• Watch out for €60

• Hibernation: How the EU carbon market is adapting to a long geopolitical winter

• The sword of inelastic supply cuts BOTH ways

• Beware the algorithms ‘robo-herding’ the EU carbon market

• The next domino to fall

• Carbon's 'diamond hands' about to get tested once more

• Back to black? There's more to Germany's energy security plan than burning more coal

• Charting carbon's course

• In search of a new narrative

• Whatever it takes: Why forward guidance in the EU carbon market is here, and is set to stay

• Funding REPowerEU - What impact would frontloading EUA sales have on carbon prices?

• A market driven by illiquidity

• Europe's steel industry yet to feel the full force of the carbon market

• The EU carbon market and its stock-to-flow ratio

• What is the long-term impact of Ukraine-Russia conflict on European carbon emissions?

• EU vote to extend 24% MSR withdrawal rate signals commitment to carbon market: Attention now focuses on upcoming TNAC estimate

• Carbon market tremors

• What price King Coal's return to Europe?

• Are investment funds buying the rebound in carbon?

• Carbon market sentiment check

• Europe's hydrogen economy and what it means for carbon prices

• Everything you need to know about EU emission allowance (EUA) auctions

• The unravelling

• The Day After: Reflections on the carbon market liquidation

• Option market headwinds

• Collateral damage

• In the trigger zone: What proposed changes to Article 29a mean for EU carbon prices

• Option market tailwinds: Carbon price near levels where gamma hedging begins

• What to make of speculation curb fears

• What happens to carbon prices if Russia turns off the taps?

• Romania's coal powered utility receives bailout to buy carbon allowances: How many more distressed buyers are there?

• The carbon market is not immune from equity market malaise

• The road to perdition? 100 days to compliance

• Back to the 70's

• The wrecking ball: Margin calls, illiquidity and the race for collateral

• Carbon crash: WTF happened?

• To infinity and beyond! What the non-compliance penalty and a shortage of allowances means for the price of carbon

• The witching hour approaches: The increasing role that options play in the EU carbon market

• German coalition proposals de-risk the path to higher carbon prices

• The changing fortunes of the EU carbon market

Europe macro

• Is permanent deindustrialisation of Europe still a tail risk?

• Chemical reaction

• The battle for Europe's industrial sovereignty

• Demand destruction averted, or simply a matter of time? European industrial emissions (and demand for EUAs) have been supported by state protection against high energy prices

• Demand destruction: Which industries are most exposed to high natural gas prices?

• What impact would a recession have on the EU carbon market?

• Europe's industrial slump: How bad will it get, and what does it mean for carbon?

• Taking off, or coming into land: The outlook for European aviation emissions

• Dead cat bounce: European industrial gas demand yet to reach rock bottom

Europe’s low carbon energy

• How to power up Europe's industrial decarbonisation: Closing the spark spread would be a good start

• France's focus on 'energy sovereignty' is starting to payoff

• The forgotten giant of clean energy: Why carbon market investors need to keep an eye on Europe's drought

• France's nuclear risk premium has faded, for now

• France's nuclear winter of discontent

• The rate of change

• High and dry: Drought threatens Germany's plan to burn more coal

• Utility player: Climate change threatens hydropower's under-appreciated role in the energy transition

• Split by the atom: Political divisions threaten nuclear powers role in Europe's energy transition

• In the shade: Europe's solar power does not get the credit it deserves

• Long-term drought puts Europe's hydroelectric generation at risk

• Europe's nuclear fallout: What EDF's woes mean for carbon prices

Emissions reporting

• Scope 3 forces mining companies into rethink

• Scope creep: Mandatory climate disclosures target under-reported carbon risk

• Full disclosure

• How much should we trust the dictator’s CO2 estimates?

• Not just hot air?

• Owning up to Scope 3: How investors should think about the SEC's proposed disclosure requirements

• In the shadows: Everything you need to know about internal carbon pricing

• Owning up to carbon: Why mandatory climate disclosure requirements could drive demand for emission allowances

Emissions monitoring technology

• Picking the ‘low hanging fruit’: Technology key to North Sea methane abatement

• Interview with Clémentine Serey of emissions tracking firm Kayrros

• The carbon tracking opportunity: Real time tracking of GHG emissions and carbon sinks is a huge growth market

Fuzzy forecasts

• Caution! Net zero scenarios are not forecasts: Why the blurring of the normative and the predictive is leading to a misallocation of capital

• The climate casino

• A margin of safety

• Weighing the value of carbon price predictions

Investment

• Divining reality from the hype

• Mind the behaviour gap: How to avoid losing money investing in the energy transition

• Carbon as an impact investment

• Investing in the EU carbon market: 11 ways investors can gain exposure

• A 'green' unicorn: What the cleantech boom and bust tells us about the future of climate tech

• Does the stock market care about the carbon price?

• Which industries benefit from a high carbon price?

• GEO versus N-GEO: Investing in the VCM futures market

• The 'green lairds': How carbon and natural capital investors are driving demand for land

• How to invest in North America's carbon markets

• Buy and hold going physical

• The emerging marginal buyer of carbon

• Short selling is a poor hedge against carbon risk

• Carbon credits ≠ carbon allowances: Probably best not to invest in a fund that doesn't know the difference

• How to invest in the EU carbon market

• How institutional investment affected the structure of commodity markets, and what it might mean for carbon markets

• The carbon price is an inflation hedge

• Getting off zero: Institutional investment likely to give carbon markets the short squeeze

• Investors have a new way to help the environment

Industrial decarbonisation

• Ready mixed: How Europe's largest cement producers are rapidly cutting their Scope 1 emissions

• An iron will: Sweden's first mover advantage in green steel will be tough to replicate

• Europe's bridge to 'green' steel

• Stranded asset, or last mover advantage?

• Biomethane is the killer application Europe needs to decarbonise

• Rotten returns: Biomethane could play a big role in European decarbonisation

• Heat pumps on the factory floor

• Carbon's shifting anchor: The growth in electrolyser capacity is pivotal to Europe's decarbonisation ambitions

• The long term price of emission: Clearing the industrial decarbonisation bottleneck will require significantly higher carbon prices

• A volatile gas: Hydrogen's latest hype cycle still suffers from overinflated expectations

• Concrete returns: Laying the foundations for a decarbonised cement industry

Methane

• Nitrogen fix: Curbing excess use is key to solving synthetic fertiliser emissions

• Better in than out: The worlds largest meat and dairy corporations are under pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions

• No free lunch: Cutting global methane emissions from oil and gas is more difficult than it seems

• Pricing methane emissions out of the atmosphere: America's first nationwide price on a greenhouse gas does not go far enough

Miscellaneous

• Transformers - A supply chain problem in disguise

• Back to the futures: Three factors will determine whether ASX's new environmental futures contracts are a success

• The clouds silver lining: Why data centre emissions are the least of our worries

• Scope 4 emissions: Unlocking low-carbon innovation

• A chilling prospect

• Growing the circle to get to net zero: High carbon prices and supportive government policies will reenergise circular economy investment

• Book and claim - Part 1: Energy Attribute Certificates play a vital but controversial role in the energy transition

• Book and claim - Part 2: How SAF and green H2 are harnessing the power of Energy Attribute Certificates

Maritime / airlines

• Putting a price on contrails: The 'low-hanging fruit of aviation’ emission abatement

• Frequent fryer: Demand for biofuels made from used cooking oil is soaring, but could there be a sting in the tail?

• The green methanol economy is emerging in Denmark: Off-take agreements signal an industry ripe for growth

• Run out of steam: Delay in implementing levy on global shipping emissions leaves decarbonisation all at sea

• Putting a cap on European shipping emissions: The maritime sector is beginning to price in EU carbon prices

• What price decarbonised shipping? A carbon price will have powerful knock-on effects on global ship supply

• Blending in: Decarbonising air travel with 'sustainable' fuel

• The sky's the limit

• Clean air turbulence over Europe

Natural capital markets

• Protection money: Halting deforestation will come with a hefty price tag

• Repricing deforestation risk in the wake of Brazil's presidential election

• Putting a price on H₂O: Carbon markets are just the start of a revolution putting a price on natural capital

• Natural capital markets: Putting a price on nature

Technology

• A bump in the road: Network effects suggest that any EV growth slowdown will be brief

• Exponential

• Alternative proteins climb the slope of enlightenment

The carbon border levy

• No Turkish delight: Cheap Russian coal, macroeconomic disarray, and the EU's carbon border levy

• Carbon border risk: EUAs offer a tradeable hedge against future CBAM exposure

• No level playing field: Europe's carbon levy will accelerate adoption of carbon pricing, but not everyone will win

• Hedging the CBAM: What the EU's carbon border tax might means for carbon investors

UK emissions trading scheme (UK ETS)

• UK-EU ETS linkage trade turns sour: Prime Minister Starmer pledges never to re-join the EU

• UK carbon market nadir has passed

• Subject to further consultation: The state of play in the UK carbon market

• Recoupling?

• The convergence trade: What's behind the collapse in the UKA-EUA carbon market spread?

• The UK carbon market continues to dodge political headwinds...but for how long?

• Majestic performance: The first anniversary of the UK carbon market

• The UK carbon market looks like a smarter 'risk-adjusted' bet for investors

• Splendid isolation: UK carbon prices have not suffered the same sharp declines as the EU

• To intervene or not to intervene: An update on the UK carbon market

• Why carbon investors need to pay attention to the UK carbon market

United States carbon markets - California / RGGI / Washington State

• It's the climate, stupid!

• California's emissionary zeal begins to crack: Carbon market tumbles as climate policies are delayed

• The burning question: What climate legacy will Trump 2.0 leave in his wake?

• The RGGI power grab: The underappreciated beneficiary of surging electricity demand in the US northeast

• The spectre of 'gilets jaunes' returns: Revolt over gasoline price hikes could lead to carbon price rebellion

• Is a repeat of 2021 on the cards for California's carbon market?

• Participation game: What Pennsylvania’s participation in RGGI means for emission allowance prices

• Washington State's inaugural carbon auction clears near $50: High premium to other North American carbon markets will increase calls to link up with California

• California's 'forgotten giant of clean electricity' is set to reawaken in 2023: What it means for power sector emissions and the demand for carbon allowances

• Everything you need to know about Washington State's "Cap-and-Invest" carbon market

• California's carbon market left to "fill the gap" in revised climate strategy

• Post summer blues hit the Californian carbon market

• Diablo Canyon Resurrected?

• The disunited state of American power generation

• California's carbon rush: How the next wave of speculation in its carbon market could play out

• MAC curve steepening: What California's mix of carbon policies means for price discovery

• California's carbon market: The 6 factors to pay attention to right now

• Volatile RGGI carbon prices as Virginia's Governor continues to push to leave the scheme

• An asymmetric bet on a phase transition

• Parched: How California's drought impacts the carbon market

• Tackling carbon offset oversupply in California could be bullish for CCA prices: But only if regulator makes necessary reforms

• Everything you need to know about the RGGI carbon market

• Great expectations: How legacy issues could snuff out California's carbon market boom

• The trend is your friend in California but could there be a sting in its tail?

• What the demise of BBB means for CCA

• The green light from the Golden State: The California carbon market opportunity

Verified carbon market (VCM)

• Shifting the narrative: Common sense prevails as SBTi approves credits for Scope 3 abatement

• Whose carbon?: Emerging economies struggle to balance climate finance and carbon sovereignty

• An underappreciated climate change risk

• Is the VCM a trillion dollar business opportunity?

• Fight Fire With Fire: The case for controlled burning carbon credits

• Consumer carbon offset market faces a knowledge gap

• Carbon credits - a permission to pollute, or a signal to decarbonise?

• Green and black: Guyana's huge bet on a carbon and oil constrained future

• REDD+ and the common knowledge game

• The signal and the noise: Pricing the carbon credit risk curve

• ESG investment backlash hits nature-based carbon credit prices

• Under the hammer: What the auction of 250,000 blue carbon credits tells us about the market

• How the other half cooks: Carbon credits with co-benefits

• The big sovereign carbon trade: Africa's "green superpower" expected to issue 90 million carbon credits

• VCM futures no refuge from equity market malaise: Strong corporate demand for carbon credits masks declining willingness to pay

• Banking on 'blue carbon': Everything you need to know about carbon credits sourced from the ocean

• Plumbing the depths of the VCM

• Africa's "green superpower"

• Nature-based carbon credit prices need to rise: High commodity prices increase the incentive to clear forests and plant crops

• The first signs of carbon credit nationalism? Why are the Indonesian and Papua New Guinea carbon credit markets on hold?

• 'Winner takes all' in the VCM

• The pros and cons of carbon credit 'streaming'

• The voluntary carbon market (VCM): At the edge of the carbon market risk curve

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