“Our society is being propelled forward by several new innovations - computing and artificial intelligence, renewable electricity and energy storage, breakthroughs in biology and manufacturing. These innovations are improving in ways that we don’t yet fully understand. What makes them unique is the fact they are developing: at an exponential pace, getting faster and faster with each passing month.”
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, author of Exponential: Order and Chaos in an Age of Accelerating TechnologyAzeem’s book, Exponential seeks to provide some context to the overwhelming feeling that innovation is accelerating, creating turmoil across industries, while drastically altering our expectations about what the future might bring. One of the emerging technologies identified in the book is renewable energy generation, in particular solar and wind power.
According to data compiled by Ember, solar and wind accounted for 12% of global power generation in 2022, pushing up the share of clean energy (renewables, nuclear, hydro, bioenergy, etc.) to almost 40%. Meanwhile, solar and wind electricity generation met 80% of the incremental electricity demand growth in 2022.
The speed at which these two generation sources are changing the electricity generation mix is astounding. In every region, solar and wind power is making inroads into the share previously held by fossil fuel generation. Not all regions are moving at the same speed, but everyone is moving in the same direction.
Europe was the first to start on the journey towards high levels of solar and wind generation, it’s share rising to over 15% in 2022. However, it’s no longer the leader. Over the past few years Oceania has overtaken Europe, as capacity in Australia has ramped up. In contrast, Africa and the Middle East remain significantly below the global average, but even there the speed of adoption is accelerating (see In the shade: Europe's solar power does not get the credit it deserves).
Indeed, there are signs that the growth in solar and wind especially is bringing us close to a tipping point, one where global power sector emissions are about to start a long period of decline. In a report published in April, Ember predicted that this could happen as soon as this year. The question then becomes, what happens next?1
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