The burning question

What climate legacy will Trump 2.0 leave in his wake?

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Donald Trump’s chances of regaining the keys to the White House have surged since the presidential debate against Joe Biden. The implied probability of a second Trump term reached a high of 64% at one point, according to the Betfair exchange. It has since retreated to below 60%.

The potential impact of Trump 2.0 on climate policy has been a talking point for several months. However, in light of the recent surge in his chances of becoming president again, it’s worth revisiting some of policies most likely to see the chop and the potential impact on emissions in both the US and the rest of the world (see Climate policy uncertainty is on the rise).

Recall that during the his first term as president, Trump is estimated to have rolled back more than 100 environmental policies. Analysis by Rhodium estimated that had Trump remained in power, the rollback of domestic US regulations alone would have potentially added 1.8 Gt CO2e into the atmosphere by 2035.

Putting aside the dismantling of domestic environmental regulations, Trump’s most notable (read notorious) move was announcing the US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement. It took three years to actually leave, but in doing so, the US became the first (and only) nation to formally withdraw from the climate accord.

Although the US subsequently re-joined the accord under Biden the chances of Trump having a change of heart towards global climate policies appears slim. Labelling the Paris Agreement as “a rip off of the United States” during the TV debate with Biden, it will come as no surprise that Trump is likely to pull the US out of the climate accord for a second time.

This time Trump might go even further and make it much more difficult for subsequent administrations to re-join. A recent article in Politico highlights the possibility that Trump might remove the US from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is the framework that underpins global climate talks:¹

“Doing so would effectively end U.S. participation in global climate talks, obliterating international cooperation when nations are still far off track from goals to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era.

A U.S. departure would impede the UNFCCC’s operations, as the U.S. is a major funder of the treaty. It also could erect more significant hurdles for a future president to rejoin the Paris climate agreement.

Leaving the UNFCCC, which also would take one year, would also excuse the U.S. from contributing to funding streams aimed at helping developing countries reduce their emissions and respond to the effects of climate change.”

The decision by the US to leave the climate accord in 2016 led to a malaise in global climate negotiations. But the impact was arguably offset to some extent by the strength of commitment elsewhere in the world, and in particular Europe. With the macro and political backdrop now much more hostile to ambitious climate policies, the threat to progressive global climate talks is much greater.