A chilling prospect

Photo by Alexandre Lecocq on Unsplash

“Air conditioning. Air conditioning was a most important invention for us, perhaps one of the signal inventions of history. It changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics.”

- Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first prime minister, when asked about the secret to his country’s success.

As the world warms, the demand for cooling increases. Yet the demand for cooling may end up worsening the very problem it is trying to adapt to, especially if it draws on fossil fuels, or leaks refrigerants that are also potent greenhouse gases (GHG’s).¹

Over one-third of global households (34.5%) were estimated to have air-conditioning (AC) in 2021. The distribution of AC’s is predominantly centred on North America (mainly the southern US states) where 83.3% of households have AC installed. Adoption is especially high given that only a relatively small proportion of the population live in a hot climate.²

The other two regions with large household adoption are Asia Pacific (primarily the richest nations including Singapore, Japan and Australia) and the Middle East where over 40% of households have AC. In comparison, AC adoption is very low in Africa and Central and South America, (between 10% and 20%), especially so given the hot climate. AC adoption by households in Europe and Eurasia is also around the same level, although there climate is much more temperate.

Despite their different starting points and individual circumstances, AC demand is increasing across all regions. Global adoption rose by almost 15 percentage points between 2020 and 2021 levels, driven largely by Asia-Pacific where the share of households with AC doubled to over 40%. High temperatures played their part in stirring demand, but as we’ll see later, rising incomes also play a key part in determining household adoption of AC.

Adapting to a warmer world

Summer 2022 ranks among the hottest on record, according to data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Hot weather baked much of the globe, with Europe and China both recording their warmest meteorological summers, while other countries experienced record daily temperatures and prolonged, record breaking heatwaves.

Only in the past month, a heatwave in southern Europe with resulted in Spain and Portugal experiencing record April temperatures of over 40°C, while in Asia temperatures climbed to 45°C in Myanmar, 44.5°C in India and 41.9°C in China, with Thailand and Laos breaking all-time high records.