The battery that lies beneath
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In the early 2000’s many analysts were sceptical that a country would be able to generate more than a few percent of its electricity from renewable energy.
Fast forward to the end of 2024 and Europe was generating close to 50% of its electricity from renewables, with solar and wind accounting for around 30%. Its lower in the United States and China, but at 25-30% it has still reached levels unimaginable only a couple of decades ago.
Nevertheless, despite strong progress it is still someway short of where the world needs to be if its to be on course for net zero. The IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario sets out a global target of 60% renewable electricity generation by 2030, double the current global share.12
Although the cost of renewable energy is coming down, the inherent intermittency of solar and wind power and the need for constant grid balancing, means that once renewables penetration increases beyond a certain point, the total system cost experiences a dramatic non-linear spike.
Researchers at the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) simulated 154 different scenarios to get to 100% renewable energy in the US. They found that once you get past 80% renewable penetration the total system cost - measured in terms of CO2 abatement cost - starts to go parabolic, rising towards $1,000 per tonne as you approach 100%.3
Geothermal could provide the answer. No, not your old school conventional geothermal. We’re talking next-generation geothermal.*
* Note that this is the first in a series of articles on next-generation geothermal. This article spells out the optimistic case.