What happens to carbon prices if Russia turns off the taps?

The current geopolitical tension with Russia has focused investors attention on the potential implications for Europe’s natural gas supply.

Any military conflict risks disrupting gas exports, whether intentionally or not, either limited in scope or in the extreme, all exports. In the event that a Russian invasion of Ukraine triggers stringent sanctions, Russia might react with a potential retaliatory halting of gas exports to Europe - either via Ukraine, or the Yamal pipeline through Poland, or in the extreme, both routes.

How likely is it that Russian exports are cut?

Before I get to the potential implications on European carbon markets, its important to consider its likelihood, especially given that there is no precedent for Russia reneging on its export commitments.