'Winner takes all' in the VCM

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) cannot be measured simply looking at the current value of various carbon credits. The VCM is a growth sector where everything is up for grabs.

It is an unregulated sector where there are no hard and fast rules as to how things must be done. For sure, it is the Wild West in certain areas, but that also means the opportunity for those businesses that can set the standard by which others must then follow is high.

According to Trove Research a realistic base case scenario is that the primary market for carbon credits grows 9 fold between 2020 ad 2030 to around 900Mt. With carbon credit prices of $20-50 per tonne required by 2030, the total size of the VCM market is likely to be in the range of $18-$45bn.

As with other growth markets there really could be a ‘winner takes all’ effect whereby a small number of companies serve to carve up the VCM market.