Power play

Norway is not Europe's battery, and it never will be

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“It’s an absolutely shit situation.”

-Terje Aasland, Norway’s energy minister

In early October 2021 the North Sea Link, a 1.4 GW interconnector between Britain and Norway, was switched on for the first time. Spanning 730 kms it is the worlds longest undersea power cable. First proposed in 2003, construction eventually began in March 2015. Commenting on the opening, Cordi O’Hara, president of National Grid Ventures, said “North Sea Link is a truly remarkable feat of engineering. We had to go through mountains, fjords and across the North Sea to make this happen.”

The interconnector enables electrons generated from Norway’s zero-carbon hydropower plants to flow across the North Sea to the UK. But it also allows the UK to export power back to Norway, for example when there is a surplus of wind generation in the North Sea. According to UK grid operator National Grid, North Sea Link will help the UK avoid 23 Mt of CO2 by 2030.

A few months earlier another power cable traversing the seabed under the North Sea was being energised. The 1.4 GW 623 km NordLink interconnector linking Norway with Germany was first proposed in 2013 and initially scheduled to be completed by 2018, but as with as with North Sea Link construction didn’t begin until 2015.

The strategic importance of interconnectors to Europe’s energy security has long been recognised. In 2014/15 EU member states set a 2030 target calling for a minimum of 15% interconnectedness, applicable to all EU countries.

In theory cross border power trading means utilities can avoid building costly and largely redundant spare generation capacity. Furthermore, it can help countries decarbonise by managing periods of surplus and deficit caused by renewable intermittency.

That’s especially valuable when countries at either end of an interconnector rely on different types of renewable energy, and are able to counterbalance each other. It’s what made interconnectors between northern Europe (the UK, Denmark, and Germany) and Norway so valuable, or at least on the surface.

Norwegian hydropower generation (more than 90% of the power mix) should exhibit a low degree of correlation with renewable generation (wind, solar) based in north west continental Europe. Given Norway’s position as the biggest hydropower generator in Europe and the sixth largest in the world, it’s unsurprising that many considered Norway to be Europe’s battery. It made sense for Europe to seek a power connection with it’s most northernmost neighbour.¹

High and dry

Just days after the North Sea interconnector opened and zero-carbon electrons flowed south towards the UK, Norway was hit by fears that a drought might mean there wouldn't be enough power domestically. Reserves dropped to around 70% during October, far below the 5-year average for the time of year of almost 90%.

It came at a time when Europe was just beginning to feel the effect of the energy crisis, and the pressure was on to ensure secure, affordable energy supplies. It was another four and half months until Russia invaded Ukraine and those illusions were shattered (see Utility player: Climate change threatens hydropower's under-appreciated role in the energy transition).

Twelve months later and the drought wasn’t getting much better. At the beginning of August, the reservoirs upstream of the dams were only 68.4% full, versus 78.9% normally. Concerned that rationing could be around the corner the government announced that they might need to consider export controls to allow the reservoirs to refill and to prevent Norwegian electricity prices from spiking too high. Norwegian Directorate for Water Resources and Energy (NVE) Director Kjetil Lund reminded utilities of their "responsibility to manage not just a commodity, but an essential resource for society.”

Source: @magnuspedia

In December 2024, in response to soaring electricity prices, multiple times higher than the EU average. The governments energy minister was furious at the situation. In response to the anger felt among many Norwegians the two-party coalition pledged to cut the two interconnectors linking it with Denmark when they come up for renewal in 2026. The Skagerrak 1 and 2 interconnectors (commissioned in 1976 and 1977 respectively), are part of a trio of cables, including the Skagerrak 3 interconnector (connected in 1993), linking the Norwegian and Danish power grids. The coalition also campaigned to renegotiate terms with the UK and Germany regarding the interconnectors linking their countries energy systems.²

And then, in January 2025, the Norwegian government collapsed after the Eurosceptic Centre Party left the two-party coalition in dispute over the adoption of EU energy policies. Labour, the other party in the coalition, could now govern alone until the general election in September. However, it lacks a majority in parliament and trails right-wing parties in opinion polls, making any move towards re-energising Norway’s energy relationship with the EU politically toxic.³

Going with the flow

It was a mistake to think that Norway would be Europe’s battery - just turn it on whenever you need, and watch the electrons flow south to continental Europe. For one, abundant hydroelectric generation capacity, and cheap power has electrified the Norwegian economy. In 2024 89.3% of cars sold were electric, almost 7-times the EU average, and up from 82.4% in 2023. Oslo, the country’s capital, can feel like a Tesla showroom during rush hour.

Access to cheap, abundant power isn’t just a boost to Norway’s EV aspirations, it’s a vital component of its industrial success. For example, hydropower generates around 650 TWh of electricity in Europe per year, but around 15% of this is consumed by the continents aluminium smelters, many of which are located in Norway, the largest supplier of the metal to the EU (see Aluminium's climate paradox).