Divining reality from the hype

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Estimated reading time ~ 6 mins

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”

Mark Twain

Nascent climate change adaptation technologies are beginning to emerge, but expectations are low. In contrast, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) might be suffering from inflated expectations. Investors remain disillusioned with ESG, but the worst may be behind it. The same cannot be said for the voluntary carbon market where more bad news and disappointment are likely to be forthcoming.

These are just some of the conclusions that can be drawn from the recently published Environmental Sustainability Hype Cycle from Gartner. The chart below illustrates the maturity and adoption of relevant technologies and applications (although by no means an exhaustive list), based on the same hype cycle methodology that Gartner uses to assess technological hype in other industries.¹

The position of each innovation on the hype cycle is based on a consensus assessment of hype and maturity. Gartner selects a variety of market signals and proxy indicators to establish the level of expectations.

During the first part of the hype cycle, an innovations position on the curve is guided more by its hype levels and market expectations. Hype plays a smaller role in determining the innovation’s position during later stages, as more information about maturity, performance and adoption becomes available (see A 'green' unicorn: What the cleantech boom and bust tells us about the future of climate tech).

Environmental Sustainability Hype Cycle 2024

Gartner break down the hype cycle into five distinct phases of a technology's life cycle:

1. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough! Early proof-of-concept stories generate significant interest in the media. Commercial viability is unproven though - it’s often the case that no usable products exists.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories, often accompanied by several failures that do not get the same publicity. Investor interest is huge with forecasts extrapolating early progress on a straight linear path many years into the future.

3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investors realise they have overpaid, and now shun the sector completely, even if there are attractive opportunities available.

4. Slope of Enlightenment: The technology begins to see broader adoption as the benefits start to become more widely understood. Other companies improve on the initial technology. While some forward looking companies and individuals take a punt, the majority are too cautious to adopt it.

5. Plateau of Productivity: This is where mainstream adoption really starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined according to Gartner. If the technology is ever going to become more than a niche market then this is the time that it should continue to grow.

Although each technology follows the same hype cycle, the length of time it may take to move from “Innovation Trigger” through to “Plateau of Productivity” (and each phase in-between) may vary enormously. For some nascent technologies (e.g., AI for sustainability and biodiversity accounting) Gartner expects them to reach phase 5 within 2-5 years, while others are likely to take more than 10 years (e.g., resource positive building and climate change adaptation).

Of course just because a technology is passing through the hype cycles does not mean that it is guaranteed to hit the “Plateau of Productivity”. Often a technology becomes obsolete well before it reaches the “Slope of Enlightenment”, let alone reach mass adoption.

Technologies may also experience more than one hype cycle, each separated by long periods of time, with investors calling for this latest hype cycle to be the big one where it finally reaches the sunny uplands of the “Plateau of Productivity”. Green hydrogen for example has experienced multiple hype cycles (see Europe's hydrogen economy and what it means for carbon prices).