It's the climate, stupid!

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Global attention is naturally focused on the risks posed by Trump 2.0, what the Republican Party’s return to power might mean for US participation in global climate accords, and the potential knock-on impact on climate policy ambition elsewhere in the world.

Betting markets imply that Donald Trump has a greater than 60% probability of becoming the next president, and that there is an 80% probability of a Republican controlled Senate. The confluence of both of these outcomes would give Trump the mandate and the means to rollback Biden era policy and refocus it on other things besides the climate.¹

In The burning question: What climate legacy will Trump 2.0 leave in his wake? I consider some of the key areas of uncertainty. First, whether Trump might abandon the Paris Agreement, and then proceed to remove the US entirely from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Second, the likelihood that Trump would rip up the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the impact that would have on US emissions. Third, the knock-on impact of the loss of climate tech investment on the rest of the world.

“Blowing hot and cold. From climate leader to climate pariah. The climate legacy of Trump’s second term is likely to live on far longer than his first.”

However, there is a more nuanced battle happening at the state level that could also have significant climate policy implications. It’s one that goes beyond simply whether individual states can continue to rely on IRA subsidies after the election. The knock-on impact of state elections could affect support for the introduction of carbon pricing in the US, the likelihood that EV mandates will be introduced or banned, and the investment case for renewable energy and other climate technologies.